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Analysis of Introduced Species as a form of Biological Weapon: part 2- Strategies for Discernment of an Attack and Countermeasures

Roberge Lawrence F

One key issue with biological weapons (BW) using Non-Indigenous Species (NIS) (aka invasive species) is to differentiate a deliberate attack from a natural outbreak or accidental introduction via commerce or other means.

The methods to detect a Non-Indigenous Species based Biological Warfare (NIS BW) attack as well as discern accidental introductions from a deliberate attack are diverse and challenging. They include a multi-tiered analysis to rule out the following: possible routes of accidental releases from commercial trade; escapes from exotic breeders; releases of exotic pets; and release or dispersal of NIS from catastrophic storms, prevailing wind currents or animal migrations. Other keys to determine a deliberate NIS BW attack are detection of uncommon routes of entry; widespread dissemination of the NIS; extremely high rates of propagules found; or evidence of genetic alternation of NIS, especially to enhance invasiveness, reproduction, or colonization traits as well as human intelligence of a planned BW attack using the introduced organism; and evidence of culturing of the NIS organism by a nation state or terrorist facility.

In all cases of NIS BW, it is a violation of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) as the NIS is considered a biological agent used for hostile purposes. This paper also briefly explores other international treaties that would prohibit use of NIS BW.

The recommendations for countermeasures (either as prevention or as remediation) to a NIS BW attack include the following tasks; expansion of NIS databases, improvements to the APHIS Port Information Network (PIN) data collection and database availability, and enhancements to NIS research in experimental controlled field trials. Another important counterstrategy is to expand research on potential NIS organisms including enhancements to Environmental Niche Modeling software. The enhancements on the software and data processing accuracy would improve the predictive potential of these tools. Next, although NIS genomic mapping is still in its infancy, expansion of genomic maps of NIS organisms would serve several purposes. First, it would expand understanding of the role that genetic variability plays in invasion survival and colonization in naïve niches as well as locate specific genes necessary for successful invasion and colonization. Also, genomic maps would accelerate the development of gene-based diagnostics for NIS BW detection. Second, NIS genomic maps would help in the detection of genetically engineered NIS organisms. The detection of genetically altered NIS would strongly indicate that a NIS BW attack had occurred. Furthermore, regardless of whether the identity of the originator of the NIS BW attack was known or not, the revelation of a NIS BW attack with genetically engineered traits must be reported to the BTWC committee for follow up investigation.