Advances in Automobile Engineering
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Identification of the Optimal Passenger Car Vehicle Fleet Transition for Mitigating the Cumulative Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050

Benjamin Blat Belmonte

We present an optimization model for the passenger car vehicle fleet transition—the time-dependent fleet composition—in Germany until 2050. The goal was to minimize the cumulative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the vehicle fleet taking into account life-cycle assessment (LCA) data. LCAs provide information on the global warming potential (GWP) of different powertrain concepts. Meta-analyses of batteries, of different fuel types, and of the German energy sector are conducted to support the model. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed on four key influence parameters: the battery production emissions trend, the German energy sector trend, the hydrogen production path trend, and the mobility sector trend. Overall, we draw the conclusion that—in any scenario—future vehicles should have a plug-in option, allowing their usage as fully or partly electrical vehicles. For short-distance trips, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with a small battery size are the most reasonable choice throughout the transition. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) powered by compressed natural gas (CNG) emerge as a promising long-range capable solution. Starting in 2040, long-range capable BEVs and fuel cell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (FCPHEVs) have similar life-cycle emissions as PHEV-CNG. The world community concurred to the goal of limiting global temperature rise to ideally 1.5 °C compared with the pre-industrial age during the United Nations climate conference in Paris in 2015. According to this, the German government set the goals of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% in 2020 (compared to 1990). The climate protection report of 2018 states that these climate targets will be missed. In contrast to the two main contributors—the energy sector and the industry sector—that will achieve almost a 40% GHG emission reduction by 2020, the GHG emissions of the mobility sector have only been reduced by 5%. Consequently, in this sector, there still is a lot of unlocked potential for climate protection.